1) Press Release: IMF Executive Board Completes First Post-Program Monitoring for Antigua and Barbuda
5/3/14 4:17 PM
IMF Executive Board Completes First PostProgram Monitoring for Antigua and
Barbuda
Press Release No.14/194
May 1, 2014
On April 21, 2014, the Executive Board of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the first Post Program
Monitoring discussion for Antigua and Barbuda.
On June 5, 2013, the Board concluded the tenth and final
review of the 36-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).
Given that outstanding Fund credit was 500 percent of
quota, Directors agreed that post-program monitoring
should be initiated.
Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is facing headwinds. In
2013, economic growth was somewhat lower than
projected at the time of the SBA review and the fiscal
deficit widened substantially. This year, the economy is
expected to grow by 1.6 percent, up from 0.5 percent in
2013; and inflation is expected to remain subdued at
around 1 percent. However, risks to this outlook are high,
stemming in particular from the country’s unsustainable
fiscal situation, and the large share of nonperforming loans
in the banking system.
Executive Board Assessment
Executive Directors noted with concern that the
macroeconomic performance has deteriorated in the
months following the conclusion of the SBA with the Fund,
weakening the growth outlook and exacerbating downside
risks.
Directors recognized the progress made in bank resolution,
but stressed that delays in reforms are exacerbating fiscal
risks and undermining the stability of the banking system.
They urged the authorities to move quickly to resolve the
Antigua and Barbuda Investment Bank, in close
collaboration with the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank.
Directors cautioned that the resolution strategy should not
weaken the fiscal position further.
Directors stressed the importance of swiftly reversing fiscal
slippages and encouraged the authorities to articulate a
comprehensive medium-term fiscal consolidation program
to put the public debt on a sustainable path.
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2) Press Release: IMF Executive Board Completes First Post-Program Monitoring for Antigua and Barbuda
5/3/14 4:17 PM
to put the public debt on a sustainable path.
Directors called for a redoubling of efforts to implement
pending tax administration reforms, including the longdelayed Tax Administration and Procedures Act, and scale
back tax exemptions. They also recommended that wage
restraint to reduce personnel costs should be an important
element of the authorities’ fiscal strategy. More broadly,
the recent increase in current expenditure should be
reversed and transfers to state-owned enterprises reduced,
while protecting capital spending.
Directors considered that the recently launched Citizenship
by Investment Program (CIP) could bring benefits to
Antigua and Barbuda, if managed prudently. Noting the
inherent uncertainty associated with income from such a
program, they recommended that CIP revenues be
targeted primarily for paying down debt and for creating a
buffer to smooth spending in the event of adverse shocks.
Directors stressed the importance of measures to improve
the business climate and external competitiveness over the
medium term, and welcomed the initiatives underway in
this area.
Antigua and Barbuda: Selected Economic Indicators, 2009−13
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
National income and prices
GDP at constant factor cost
-10.7
-8.6
-2.1
2.8
0.5
Nominal GDP at market prices
-10.5
-5.9
-0.7
5.9
1.5
Consumer prices (e.o.p)
2.4
2.9
4.0
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3) Press Release: IMF Executive Board Completes First Post-Program Monitoring for Antigua and Barbuda
5/3/14 4:17 PM
1.8
1.1
(Percent of GDP)
Central government
Primary balance
-11.0
1.9
-1.5
1.1
-1.4
Overall balance
-18.2
-0.3
-3.6
-1.2
-3.3
Total revenue and grants
18.7
22.5
20.5
20.0
18.4
Total expenditure
36.9
22.7
24.1
21.2
21.8
Money and credit
Net foreign assets
(Changes in percent of beginning of period broad money)
-5.5
1.1
-2.2
4.1
2.2
Net domestic assets
6.1
-0.8
-4.6
-4.4
-0.1
Of which:
Net credit to the public sector
10.7
-3.3
0.8
-3.0
3.3
Credit to the private sector
-0.7
0.2
-3.7
-2.4
-2.5
Broad money
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0.5
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4) Press Release: IMF Executive Board Completes First Post-Program Monitoring for Antigua and Barbuda
5/3/14 4:17 PM
Broad money
0.3
-6.9
-0.4
2.1
Average deposit rate (in percent per annum)
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
Average lending rate (in percent per annum)
9.5
10.2
10.1
9.4
9.4
External sector
(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
Exports, f.o.b.
-22.4
-10.0
22.8
5.1
0.8
Imports, f.o.b.
-28.5
-5.2
-5.1
12.3
-2.4
Travel receipts (gross)
-8.6
-2.4
4.7
2.3
-1.9
Nominal effective exchange rate (e.o.p, depreciation -)
-5.5
8.2
4.6
-1.1
0.4
Real effective exchange rate (e.o.p, depreciation -)
-5.9
7.2
4.2
-2.5
-2.5
(Percent of GDP)
Current account balance
-14.0
-14.7
-10.4
-14.0
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5) Press Release: IMF Executive Board Completes First Post-Program Monitoring for Antigua and Barbuda
5/3/14 4:17 PM
-13.8
Trade balance
-35.5
-35.9
-33.2
-35.6
-34.0
Nonfactor service balance
23.5
22.3
24.0
23.3
22.0
Of which: Gross tourism receipts
25.3
26.2
27.7
26.7
25.8
Overall balance
-4.0
-1.3
-0.6
-1.0
-1.4
External government debt (end of year)
35.8
38.7
39.1
37.0
39.3
Memorandum items
Nominal GDP at market prices (in millions of EC$)
3,257
3,066
3,043
3,224
3,273
Central government debt stock 1/
(In millions of EC$)
3,337
2,783
2,820
2,831
3,019
(In percent of GDP)
102.5
90.8
92.7
87.8
92.2
Sources: Antigua and Barbuda authorities; ECCB; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
1/ Includes central government guarantees of state enterprises' and statutory bodies' debt. For 2012 and 2013, the debt
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6) Press Release: IMF Executive Board Completes First Post-Program Monitoring for Antigua and Barbuda
5/3/14 4:17 PM
1/ Includes central government guarantees of state enterprises' and statutory bodies' debt. For 2012 and 2013, the debt
figures include debt renegotiation agreements that reduce debt by 3.2 percent of GDP.
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Public Affairs
Media Relations
E-mail: publicaffairs@imf.org
E-mail: media@imf.org
Fax:
Phone: 202-623-7100
202-623-6220
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