1) Executive Summary Report on the Economy of the Dominican Republic
January-June 2015
During the January-June 2015 period, the Dominican economy grew by 6.4% as
compared to the same period last year. This remarkable growth rate puts the country
in a leadership position in terms of economic performance in Latin America in the
first half of the year, surpassing the economic growth of Bolivia (4.7%), Guatemala
(4.1%), Panama (4.0%), Colombia (3.7 %), Honduras (3.6%), Paraguay (3.3%) and
Nicaragua (3.3%), while the rest of the countries in the region are growing at an
annual rate below 3.0 percent.
These results, coupled with the fact that the trend-cycle of the Monthly Indicator of
Economic Activity (IMAE) showed a year-on-year growth of 6.1% for June, are a
hopeful sign that economic growth in 2015 should close above 6.0%, surpassing not
only the 2015 Monetary Program’s projection of 4.5% -5.0%, but also recent forecasts
made by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In analyzing the economic performance for the January-June 2015 period, the
following activities are highlighted: Construction (17.1%); Education (9.1%); Trade
(8.1%); Financial Intermediation (6.5%); Public Administration (6.3%); Transport and
Storage (5.9%); Health(5.7%); Energy and Water (5.6%); Hotels, Bars and
Restaurants (5.3%); Local Manufacturing (4.8%) and Agriculture (3.5%). These
activities account for 81.9% of growth during the period.
Performance for January-June 2015 is in line with an increase of 10.9% in the loan
portfolio of the harmonized financial system, with emphasis on credit to the private
sector, which grew by 16.2%year on year. During the reference period, loans to the
productive sector grew by 13.7%, notably those granted to Construction (44.6%);
Electricity, Gas, and Water (39.6%); Microenterprises (33.7%); and Manufacturing
(12.2%); this is consistent with the growth experienced by the economy.
As for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using the expenditure approach, it can be
seen that growth in the first half was sustained by the expansion of domestic demand,
mainly the increase of 16.1% in gross fixed capital formation and 4.4% in final
consumption. Regarding external demand, exports of goods and services increased by
1.8% in real terms, whereas imports of goods and services increased by 9.5% in the
shown period.
Cumulative inflation for the first six months of 2015 was 0.60%, lower by almost one
percentage point than the 1.56% corresponding to the same prior-year period. Year on
year inflation from June 2014 to June 2015 stood at 0.62%, considerably lower than
the annualized rate of 3.68% registered in mid-2014, and remaining the lowest in nondollarized countries in Latin America.
Regarding the monetary sector, it is important to note the decisions taken by the
Central Bank to ease the monetary policy stance, by the reduction of a total of 125
basis points in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) in March, April and May, dropping
2) to 5.00% per annum. These policy decisions were based on two fundamental factors:
reduced inflationary pressures, which are maintaining this variable below the target on
the policy horizon; and the impact that the observed increase in nominal and real
market interest rates would have on private credit and economic activity.
Preliminary balance of payments results for the first half of 2015 show a positive
performance for the external sector, with a current account surplus of US$17.8
million. This favorable result is based on the sustained fall in international prices for
oil and its derivatives, which has been reflected in a decrease of US$593.9 million in
the oil bill for the period, as well as the outstanding performance for tourism related
income (an increase of 9.1% year-on-year), in line with the economic performance of
the economies from which we receive the greatest number of non-resident travelers. It
is important to note that the decrease of 29.6% in the oil bill is derived exclusively
from the decline in the import price, since the volume of imported oil products
increased by 18.6%, in line with the momentum shown by the Dominican economy in
the first half of the year. This also explains the increase of US$288.1 million, or 4.5%,
registered for non-oil imports.
Regarding the fiscal accounts, in the first six months of 2015, Central Government
financial transactions showed a surplus of RD$53,934.9 million, influenced
significantly by the increase in grants, mainly due to the discounted debt buy-back of
98% of the outstanding debt corresponding to the Petrocaribe Program. It should be
noted that tax revenues, net of grants, increased by 6.4% compared to the first half of
2014, which is in line with the estimates, while expenditures grew by 11.8%
compared to the same prior-year period.
During the first half of 2015, the Dominican financial sector kept a steady growth of
its lending and borrowing transactions, with annual increases of 11.0% and 11.1%,
respectively, as well as increased levels of loan portfolio quality and profitability.
This performance was influenced by the easing of the Central Bank’s monetary policy
stance. In fact, through June 2015, the financial sector accumulated net profits of
RD$12,669.6 million, higher by RD$1,561.8 million, or 14.1%, than the profits in the
same prior-year period. This produced a return on average equity (ROE) of 17.3% and
a return on average assets (ROA) of 2.02%.