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Executive Summary Dominican Economic Performance - January-December 2015

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1) Executive Summary Report on the Economy Dominican Republic January-December 2015 During 2015, the Dominican economy grew by 7.0%, as measured by the change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), occupying the leadership position in economic growth in Latin America for the second consecutive year, above Panama (5.9 %), Bolivia (4.5%), Nicaragua (4.0%), Guatemala (3.9%), Honduras (3.4%), Colombia (3.1%), with the remaining countries below 3.0%. The average for the region estimated by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) of -0.4% for last year. In examining economic performance during 2015, the following sectors recorded favorable results: Construction (19.1%); Financial Intermediation (9.2%); Trade (8.6%); Education (8.4%); Transportation and Storage (6.4%); Hotels, Bars and Restaurants (6.3%); Health (6.5%); Local Manufacturing (6.3%); Energy and Water (6.3%); Industrial Free Zones (5.1%); and Other Services (4.1%). These activities account for 82.7% of growth for the period in question. This behavior is consistent with the strength in the loan portfolio of the consolidated financial system, which during 2015 channeled to the private sector an additional RD$89,162.8 million, for an increase of 12.6% in annualized terms. Among the segments that received the greater share of funding are: Trade, 22.6%; Hotels, Bars and Restaurants, 23.8%; Consumption, 19.6%; Home Ownership, 15.9%; Manufacturing Industries, 13.3%; and Micro-Businesses, 33.7 percent. In terms of the expenditure side of GDP, the increase was driven mainly by domestic demand, which contributed 9.5 percentage points to the 7.0% y-o-y growth registered in 2015. As components if this growth, an expansion of 20.4% in gross fixed capital formation and 5.1% in final consumption are highlights. As for net exports, they exhibited a negative impact of 2.5 percentage points. On the labor market, the results of the National Workforce Survey (ENFT, for its acronym in Spanish) indicate that 155,189 net new jobs were created in the twelve months between October 2014 and October 2015, which when added to the 235,600 jobs created between October 2012 and October 2014, represent a total of 390,789 added to the workforce during the 36-month period ending in October 2015. It should be noted that approximately 85% of the jobs created in this period were in the formal sector. As for the open unemployment rate, it fell from 6.4% in October 2014 to 5.9% in the same prior-year period. Inflation in 2015, as measured through the annualized change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 2.34%, impacted largely by the sharp fall in international oil prices, which attenuated the increase registered in the CPI in the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages group, as a result of price increases for some agricultural goods having a high weighting in the basic market basket, as a result of the drought that has been prevalent in the country. Regarding monetary policy, its application was focused on maintaining liquidity levels consistent with the inflation target of 4.0% ± 1.0% set in the 2015 Monetary Program. Accordingly, after a reduction of 125 basis points in the months of March and May, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) remained at 5.00% per annum for the rest of the year. In the external sector, the preliminary balance of payments results for the period from January to December 2015 show that the downward trend that has prevailed since 2010 remains in place with regard to the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP, which closed at 1.9%. That is below its historical average and the lowest in the last decade. This reduction is mainly due to the substantial

2) fall in the international prices of oil and its derivatives, as well as an increase of 8.7% in tourism revenue and sustained growth in inflows from family remittances. Exports of goods fell by 3.8%, partly due to a ban imposed on 18 Dominican agricultural products, in view of the presence of the medfly in the country, as well as the decision of the Haitian authorities to ban land-based trade in 23 Dominican products. Also, there was a reduction in gold and silver exports (-20.6% and -40.7%, respectively) as a result of technical problems affecting the operation at the beginning and end of the year of the largest mining operation in the country for these minerals. However, it should be noted that exports derived from the industrial free zones registered a growth of 4.8 percent. Total imports decreased by 2.4% in 2015, mainly explained by a 34.9% drop in the cost of imported oil and its derivatives, representing a significant savings for the country of US$1,353.1 million in the oil bill when compared to 2014. It is worth noting that about 4.9 million barrels more of oil and additional derivatives were imported in 2015 in comparison to the previous year, so this reduction fully responds to the decrease of 41.4% in the price of these products. In contrast, non-oil imports, which are closely linked to economic growth, exhibited an increase of 7.0 percent. Regarding the balance of services, tourism revenue reached US$6,117.9 million as a result of the increase of 458,482 in new visitor arrivals, representing a growth of 8.9% over the arrivals recorded in 2014. Also, the current transfer balance saw an increase in family remittances of an additional US$389.4 million over receipts for 2014. This result is linked to the economic recovery in the United States, which is the source for 71.1% of total remittances. Foreign Direct Investment reached US$2,221.5 million, which is higher by 0.6% compared to 2014. It should be noted that this indicator is the net result of the new investment flows and repatriation of profits. In that sense, the investment inflows grew by 5.9%, mostly concentrated in the tourism and real estate sectors. Preliminary results for Central Government operations recorded a surplus equivalent to 0.2% of GDP. This was a result of the increase in related donations due to the purchase the Dominican government made of the debt with the Venezuelan oil company, PDVSA, under the Petrocaribe program, at a discount of 52% of face value. Regarding the behavior of the Dominican financial sector, it continued to perform favorably during 2015, based on the sustained growth of its gross assets and liabilities, which showed annual increases of 11.3% and 11.4%, respectively, as well as adequate levels of profitability and quality of the loan portfolio. Notably, the financial sector accumulated net profits of RD$24,252.8 million, higher by RD$2,424.4 million, or 11.1%, than those recorded in the same period of 2014. As for the sector’s main indicators, the return on average equity (ROE) to December 2015 was 16.0%; the return on average assets (ROA) was 1.9%; and the financial intermediation ratio for the sector, calculated as the ratio between the total gross loan portfolio and total deposits from the public, was 79.9%. This is higher by 3.4 percentage points than the ratio for the same date in 2014, when it was at 76.5 percent.

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