1) Executive Summary Report on the Dominican Economy
January – March 2015
During the January-March 2015 period, the Dominican economy grew by 6.5% over the same prioryear period. Consequently, the economy is expected to close the year near the upper limit of the
growth range of 5.5-6.0% projected for 2015, according to the Macroeconomic Framework agreed to
between the Ministry of Economy, Planning and Development, the Ministry of Finance and the
Central Bank.
When analyzing the sectoral composition of growth, we can see that all economic activities recorded
positive growth rates, especially the following sectors: Construction (15.3%); Trade (10.5%);
Financial Intermediaries (8.7%); Transportation and Storage (6.2 %); Education (9.6%); Agriculture
(5.8%); Local Manufacturing (5.4%); and Hotels, Bars and Restaurants (5.0%).
The growth observed in the first quarter is in line with loan portfolio performance for the entire
financial system. In this regard, private sector credit rose by 16.6% year-on-year, especially for the
productive sectors (14.6%), noteworthy among which are these increases in funding: Construction
(68.2%); Electricity, Gas, and Water (11.1%); Trade (10.6%); Micro-enterprises (28.5%); and
Manufacturing (5.4%).
Based on these preliminary first quarter results, the Dominican Republic remains Latin America’s
leading economy in terms of economic performance in the first three months of 2015, surpassing
Panama (5.9%); Bolivia (4.6%); Guatemala (4.4%); Uruguay (4.0%); Honduras (3.7%); Colombia
(3.6%); Nicaragua (2.8%); Mexico (2.5%); Chile (2.4%); Costa Rica (2.1%); Argentina (2.0%); Peru
(1.7%); Ecuador (1.0%); El Salvador (-1.1%); and Brazil (-1.6%).
As to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), focusing on the expenditure approach, it is evident that the
growth of the economy in the first quarter was underpinned by domestic demand, with an expansion
of 16.1% in gross fixed capital formation and 4.5% in final consumption. Regarding exports of goods
and services, they registered an increase of 0.6% in real terms, while imports of goods and services
grew 10.4% in the first quarter.
Cumulative inflation for January-March 2015 was 0.16%, lower by almost one percentage point than
the 1.10% recorded in the same prior-year period, while annualized inflation, measured from March
2014 to March 2015, continued the downward trend of recent months and stood at 0.64%,
significantly lower than the annualized rate of 2.99% registered in March last year.
As for monetary policy decisions taken in the first quarter, a transitory increase in the legal reserve
ratio of 2.0 percentage points, required of all financial intermediaries, was applied in February 2015
to help stem an unusual trend in the depreciation of the exchange rate. Since inflation projections
were at all times below the target range of 4.0% ± 1.0% over the policy horizon, the measures
applied to the legal reserve requirements in February 2015 were not accompanied by a Monetary
Policy Rate (MPR) signal pointing in the same direction. Indeed, during the policy meeting in late
March, with the exchange market stabilized and the inflation expectations of economic agents
properly anchored, the monetary authorities decided to reduce the MPR by 50 basis points, effective
April 1st.
Preliminary balance of payments results for the January-March 2015 quarter show an excellent
performance in the external sector; this follows a positive current account balance for the second
consecutive year in the first quarter. This time the balance was US$295.1 million, which was
superior to the US$141.1 million registered in January-March 2014.
2) This result is mainly based on an increase of 7.8% in tourism revenues and 3.6% in family
remittances, as well as the international price reduction for oil and its derivatives. This was reflected
in a decrease in the oil bill, which fell from US$985.6 million in January-March 2014 to US$672.2 in
the same period of 2015. This represents US$313.4 million less (-31.8%), which indicates that the
deficit in the balance of payments current account would be closing the year at around 2.0% of GDP.
An important aspect of this is that the fall in the oil bill corresponds exclusively to the drop in
international fuel prices, since in terms of volume and in line with the growth rate of the economy, an
increase of 19.3% was verified therein with respect to January-March 2014.
It should be noted that non-oil imports grew by 6.7%, mainly due to the 13.8% increase in imports in
the category of Other Products, which includes motor vehicles, machinery and mechanical
appliances, cast iron and steel articles, as well as furniture, among other items. This is consistent with
the favorable performance enjoyed by economic sectors such as trade and construction.
Regarding the fiscal accounts, the Central Government registered a surplus of RD$72,954.9 million
in the first three months of 2015. This result was influenced by the Venezuelan debt repurchase,
which was offset by an increase in grant receipts, to record the gains that the country enjoyed through
the buyback of its debt at a significant discount from its nominal value. It should be noted that total
Central Government revenue excluding grants increased by 10.6% in the first quarter of 2015
compared to the same prior-year period, while public spending grew at the substantially slower pace
of 4.6% in the same period, thus adding to the Government’s tendency toward adjustment and fiscal
consolidation.
During the January-March 2015 period, the Dominican financial sector continued to experience a
sustained growth in its lending and borrowing activities, with annual increases of 9.2% and 9.0%,
respectively, and increasing levels of loan portfolio profitability and quality. In fact, the financial
sector brought in a net profit of RD$6,166.1 million, which is higher by RD$772.4 million (14.3%)
than that recorded in the same period of 2014, for a return on average equity (ROE) of 16.9% and a
return on average assets (ROA) of 2.0%. The aforementioned credit expansion was accompanied by
an NPL ratio of 1.4%. This is lower by 0.5 percentage points than the figure of 1.9% for March 2014.